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September Market Update and Q4 Predictions

Well, you’ve heard the saying “no news is good news,” but really, there’s not a whole lot of news, and depending on your perspective, of course, not much is that good. What a bummer that sounds like. I know, I know. But let’s unpack it a bit.

Despite interest rates sneaking perilously close to 8%, which is a 23 year high, it is STILL a seller’s market. While the rates have certainly sidelined some potential buyers, the fact remains that we are still in a nationwide, regional, and local housing shortage. Basic laws of supply and demand are in play in the market, with more buyers than sellers, causing prices to continue to rise even with the increase in rates that would normally slow the price increases. (As it is, prices have increased 4% year over year)

The hardest hit buyers in the market are obviously those first time buyers and/or buyers in lower price ranges. There are simply not many homes in the $150,000-$250,000 range to be had right now. In fact, I had a client write an offer (not a bad offer, either) on a home that was listed at $150,000 last week, and the listing agent let me know that they had 63 offers. SIXTY THREE. I knew they’d have a lot, but I was gobsmacked by that number.

One reason for the shortage, as I know I’ve mentioned before, is the fact that nearly 85% of homeowners have rates below 5%, and unless they really need to sell, it’s not terribly tempting for them to sell and move into a higher rate mortgage. Now, if you have owned your home a while, have great equity and no mortgage, it’s still an absolutely terrific time to sell.

While we are still seeing lots of multiple offer situations, we’re also seeing homes that need a bit of work or that don’t show well, sit on the market a bit longer than they would have even a few months ago. So while it is a good time to sell, I cannot overstate that having a great agent who will help you prep your home to sell, market it well, and commit to following up, is worth its weight in gold. Putting in that extra work will not only get you more money, but actually get your home sold in a reasonable amount of time. In this market, the “half baked” listings, or those priced too aggressively, are the ones that are sitting for longer, getting lower offers with less favorable terms, and having to make price reductions to get it sold.

I hear your, “But what if I’m a buyer? Should I just give up?” No! But, if you’re buying, I definitely have some tips-

  • Broaden your parameters. Yes, sometimes you need to reduce your expectations. Maybe that chef’s kitchen isn’t in the cards right now, but you can find a home in your “perfect” neighborhood, with less “done” and more potential.
  • Check into loan programs and grants that may offer you downpayment and closing cost assistance. They’re out there! If you’re stuck on that higher budget home, look into things like rate buy downs that will lower your rate for the first 3, 2, or 1 years. Run all your numbers, though, and please don’t jump into the situation that works now but can be a nightmare later!
  • Remember that especially if it’s your first home, it doesn’t have to be your “forever” home! Getting your foot (or toe!) in the door of the market is still a lot easier than waiting, when prices will definitely be higher (and rates may be the same or higher). It’s much better to buy less house and keep your lifestyle than overcommit and end up house poor. Building equity (for most people, at least) is still better than paying rent!

How can I help you meet your real estate goals to get you where you want to be? I’d love to answer any questions you might have about buying or selling, and help give you the tools you need to get there. Let’s talk!